Appendix

Overview

The Greenprint analysis takes a data-driven approach to quantify potential hydrogen supply and demand in Washington, D.C. (the District), Maryland (MD), and Virginia (VA), (the DMV region) to develop a vision of a regional hydrogen ecosystem. The Greenprint analysis models potential scenarios for hydrogen growth in the region based on the serviceable addressable market for the largest sectors in the region. For the purposes of this document, the Greenprint focuses on hydrogen supply and demand quantities based on an aggressive scenario to articulate what is possible in the region. To achieve this scenario, cascading support and investment are required from consumers, regulatory agencies, technology providers, and investors to create a marketplace that supports the transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon replacements such as clean hydrogen. The infrastructure and system value benefits displayed in this report are based on modeling assumptions listed in the appendix.

These assumptions suppose that the region, motivated by increasing frequency of climate-related weather events, is inspired to drive change; consumer demand for sustainable business practices incentivizes more companies to achieve net-zero goals, which leads to greater investment in low carbon solutions pushing innovation and driving down costs. These actions are supported by consistent and enduring support of local, state, and federal governments and regulatory agencies.

The hydrogen ecosystem described in the Greenprint supports and complements existing and ongoing efforts to decarbonize the economy, including electrification efforts. The Greenprint analysis focuses on the role hydrogen can play in local and regional strategies as a part of a diverse portfolio of sustainable solutions.

 

Key Modelling Outputs

  • 0.35 MMTs annual H₂ supply and demand by 2030

  • 3.5-4 GW of electrolyzer capacity required

  • $11.3 billion total CAPEX required

  • 2.7 MMTs annual CO₂ abatement by 2030

  • $150 million annual Social Cost of Carbon saved by 2030

  • 8,900 direct, indirect, and induced jobs created

  • $490 million annual state and federal tax uplift by 2030

  • $1,800 million annual gross value added by 2030

  • $270 million annual consumption uplift per year

 

Key Demand Assumptions

Ground Mobility

Medium and heavy-duty trucks

  • 14% adoption in heavy trucks and 10% in medium trucks by 2030

  • Adoption not allocated to specific companies/fleets

Bus and rail

  • No adoption assumed for pre-electrified rail and limited adoption by 2030 in non-electrified rail (5%)

  • Public buses equate to less than 1% of the total energy usage in the DMV. An 18% adoption assumed for urban buses by 2030 based on concentration of providers, asset turnover rates, and green ambitions

Personal mobility

  • Electrification will be the primary route to clean personal mobility

  • However, a small percent of the market (4%) could be gained by H₂ due to the combinatorial effect of a H₂ hub driving wider adoption

Maritime

  • Demand comes from port equipment (yard tractors, straddle carriers, CHE, RTG, reach stackers, forklifts, drayage trucks, tugboats), and fuel for ships and ferries

  • Assume a 5% hydrogen adoption rate among ships and ferries

Aviation

  • Collaboration/coordination across four major airports in the region

  • Near-term adoption for GSE and building facility and power to assess H₂ logistics, safety, and certifications for airport usage

  • The DMV region will aggressively adopt H₂ for aviation use cases

  • H₂ private planes will be a key test case with wide adoption but minimal impact due to relatively small energy consumption (compared to commercial/freight)

  • 40-80 seat H₂ planes will be in service by 2026, with rising adoption through to 2030

  • 2030 will see the roll-out of the first 100-200 seat H₂ planes

Heating

  • Over 50% of building heat in the region is delivered through electrification

  • The remaining is predominantly served by natural gas and equates to ~10% of the energy usage in the DMV region

  • Large-scale shifts to H₂ are not expected by 2030, but experimentation will be performed, which will require significant offtake

  • 1.5% of energy currently provided through natural gas replaced by H₂ in 2030. This can occur through a mix of blending and pilots of pure gas networks

  • Low blends (up to 20% blend) would not lead to significant investment

Power Generation

  • Assume an 0.38% adoption rate of estimated centralized power generation in 2030

  • Assumed 46% of data center flexible and backup power by 2030

  • Assumed 8% of other flexible backup power generation in 2030

Industry

  • Limited industrial footprint in the DMV (1% high grade heat, 0% medium grade heat)

  • Limited hydrogen feedstock usage currently, primarily concentrated in a small ammonia plant near Richmond

  • Medium heat processes in the region more suitable for electrification

  • High heat processes required significant investment/retrofit, so limited adoption by 2030 (1%)

 

In support of the Greenprint, Accenture performed a macroeconomic analysis to quantify the potential hydrogen supply and demand in the DMV region and to estimate the potential system value benefits that could accrue to the region by 2030. Accenture further assessed the infrastructure requirements to build a hydrogen economy in the region, laying out an illustration of how this potential could be realized. The policy recommendations included in this report are those of Connected DMV and do not reflect the opinions or views of Accenture.

Endnotes

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² For the purposes of the Greenprint, when discussing “hydrogen” the focus is on “clean hydrogen,” which the U.S. Government defines as hydrogen “produced with a carbon intensity equal to or less than 2 kilograms of carbon-dioxide equivalent produced at the site of production per kilogram of hydrogen produced.” For clarity or emphasis, “clean hydrogen” is sometimes used.

³ Net zero by 2050 – analysis. IEA. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050

⁴ Jamison, S., & Bocca, R. (2021, March 4). 4 solutions for reducing emissions from industrial clusters. Stephanie Jamison. https://www.weforum. org/agenda/2021/03/reduce-emissions-industrial-clusters/

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⁹ A Perspective on Hydrogen Investment, Deployment and Cost Competitiveness. (2021, July 15). Hydrogen Council. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://hydrogencouncil.com/en/hydrogen-insights-2021/

¹⁰ Hydrogen Council. (2021, November). Hydrogen for Net-Zero. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/ uploads/2021/11/Hydrogen-for-Net-Zero.pdf

¹¹ President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. (2021). The White House. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.whitehouse.gov/ bipartisan-infrastructure-law/

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¹³ E.O.M.M.B. (2017, December 4). Mayor Bowser Commits to Make Washington, DC Carbon-Neutral and Climate Resilient by 2050. Executive Office of the Mayor. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://mayor.dc.gov/ release/mayor-bowser-commits-make-washington-dc-carbon-neutral- and-climate-resilient-2050

¹⁴ Sustainable DC. (2021). Sustainable DC

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¹⁸ Maryland General Assembly. (2021, October 21). Maryland Transit Administration – Conversion to Zero–Emission Buses (Zero–Emission Bus Transition Act). https://mgaleg.maryland.gov/mgawebsite/Legislation/ Details/sb0137?ys=2021RS

¹⁹ Virginia Legislative Information System. (2020). Virginia Clean Economy Act. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/ legp604.exe?201+sum+HB1526

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²⁸ NACFE. (2020). Making Sense of Heavy-Duty Hydrogen Fuel Cell Tractors. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://nacfe.org/emerging-technology/ electric-trucks-2/making-sense-of-heavy-duty-hydrogen-fuel-celltractors/

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³¹ Melaina, M. W., Antonia, O., & Penev, M. (2013, March). Blending Hydrogen into Natural Gas Pipeline Networks: A Review of Key Issues. NREL. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/ 51995.pdf

³² The White House. (2021b, December 13). FACT SHEET: President Biden Signs Executive Order Catalyzing America’s Clean Energy Economy Through Federal Sustainability. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https:// www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/08/ fact-sheet-president-biden-signs-executive-order-catalyzing-americas- clean-energy-economy-through-federal-sustainability/

³³ CNIC. (2022). Installation Information. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.cnic.navy.mil/regions/cnrma/installations/ns_norfolk.html

³⁴ GSA. (2022). Buildings/Facilities. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/regions/welcome-to-the-national-capital- region-11/buildings-facilities

³⁵ Accenture Strategy Greenprint Analysis, performed April 2022.

³⁶ US Department of Energy. (2017b, July 19). Department of Energy Releases Updated Combined Heat and Power Installation Database. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.energy.gov/eere/amo/articles/ department-energy-releases-updated-combined-heat-and-power-installation- database#:%7E:text=The%20DOE%20CHP%20Installation%20Database, installations%20across%20the%20United%20States.

³⁷ US Environmental Protection Agency. (2021, December). Fast Facts U.S. Transportation Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 –2019. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey= P1013NR3.pdf

³⁸ Air Transport Action Group. (2021, October 5). Aviation Industry Adopts 2050 Net-Zero Carbon Goal. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.atag.org/component/news/?view=pressrelease&id=125

³⁹ Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy Association. (2015). Fuel Cells and Airport Applications. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.californiahydrogen. org/wp-content/uploads/files/Airports.pdf#:~:text=Fuel%20 cells%20can%20power%20a%20variety%20of%20services,forklifts%2C%20 passenger%20shuttles%2C%20snow%20plows%2C%20and%20nose%20 wheels.

⁴⁰ Graver, B., Zhang, K., & Rutherford, D. (2019, September). CO₂ emissions from commercial aviation, 2018. The International Council on Clean Transportation. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://theicct.org/sites/ default/files/publications/ICCT_CO2-commercl-aviation-2018_20190918. pdf

⁴¹ Argonne National Library. (2019, September). H₂@Ports Workshop Summary Report. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://publications.anl. gov/anlpubs/2020/03/158750.pdf

⁴² Argonne National Library. (2019, September). H₂@Ports Workshop Summary Report. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://publications.anl. gov/anlpubs/2020/03/158750.pdf

⁴³ Fahnestock, J., & Smith, T. (2021, October 28). This is the pathway to net-zero shipping. World Economic Forum. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/net-zero-shipping-decarbonisation- new-strategy/

⁴⁴ Dawe, K., Krantz, R., & Mouftier, L. (2022, March 7). Tools and fuels to transition shipping emissions to net zero. World Economic Forum. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/ transition-shipping-emissions-to-net-zero/

⁴⁵ EPA. Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions

⁴⁶ Data Centers - Loudoun County Economic Development, VA. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://biz.loudoun.gov/key-business-sectors/ data-centers/

⁴⁷ Quinson, Tim. Tech Companies are Setting the Most Ambitious Net-Zero Goals. (April, 2021). Bloomberg Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-07/tech-firms-aresetting- the-most-ambitious-net-zero-goals-green-insight

⁴⁸ Saur, G., Arjona, V., Clutterbuck, A., & Parker, E. (2019, December). Hydrogen and Fuel Cells for Data Center Applications Project Meeting: Workshop Report. NREL. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.nrel. gov/docs/fy20osti/75355.pdf

⁴⁹ Accenture Strategy Greenprint Analysis, performed April 2022.

⁵⁰ Saur, G., Arjona, V., Clutterbuck, A., & Parker, E. (2019, December). Hydrogen and Fuel Cells for Data Center Applications Project Meeting: Workshop Report. NREL. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.nrel. gov/docs/fy20osti/75355.pdf

⁵¹ Accenture Strategy Greenprint Analysis, performed April 2022.

⁵² Transitioning Industrial Clusters towards Net Zero. (2022). World Economic Forum. Retrieved March 28, 2022, from https://www.weforum. org/projects/transitioning-industrial-clusters-to-net-zero

⁵³ Accenture Strategy Greenprint Analysis, performed April 2022.